Week one was fairly even with ten favorites covering. Additionally, nine of the 16 home teams covered the spread, making these early season predictions anyone’s guess.
Last Week: 10-6
Thursday, Sept. 17
8:25 pm CBS Arrowhead Stadium
According to Pro Football Focus, Peyton Manning was one of the four worst quarterbacks of week one. Additionally, his play against the Ravens wasn’t a small sample. Going into last season, Peyton has been in a below average rut. Kansas City’s home field is nothing to be trifled with. I’m a little shocked by this spread
Winner ATS: Kansas City
Sunday, Sept. 20
1:00 pm CBS FirstEnergy Stadium
This just doesn’t make sense. My guess is that this line is going to swing immensely before game time, so get to it now. Manziel looked helpless at times against the Jets, and will likely be the starter against the Titans. Mariota became the first to ever debut with four TD passes, much less doing it all in the first half. But we shouldn’t hyperventilate. He only threw 16 times and almost all of them were inside of ten yards. Regardless, I think the Titans will be able to produce another game close to their first.
Winner ATS: Tennessee
1:00 pm FOX TCF Bank Stadium
The Lions offense didn’t exactly shine against the Chargers. But if the Lions can’t be considered shining, the Vikings were midnight on a moonless night. The anticipated return of Adrian Peterson resulting in 31 yards and an offense that went 1/9 on third conversions makes me think the Lions will at least cover.
Winner ATS: Detroit
1:00 pm FOX Soldier Field
Carson Palmer reminded us in week one what the Cardinals could have been had he stayed healthy. Jay Cutler reminded us why we continue to be skeptical about him being “elite.” Yes, the Cardinals gave up 350+ yards to Drew Brees, but who doesn’t? I imagine the Cardinals starting this season much like they did last season.
Winner ATS: Arizona
1:00 pm CBS Ralph Wilson Stadium
We knew the Bills were going to have a good defense. What was less predictable was the play of Tyrod Taylor. The Bills probably won’t ask him to throw too much, but he was accurate when he did throw and even showed off the ability to throw a deep ball. The Patriots did win week one, but a lot of it was capitalizing on a sloppy Pittsburgh defense. Tom Brady spent most of week one throwing short passes (much like in their last Super Bowl win) that resulted in bigger gains after a confused Steeler defense. I like Buffalo to continue another strong start.
Winner ATS: Buffalo
1:00 pm CBS Bank of America Stadium
Both of these teams struggled in week one, despite the Panthers coming out with a win. The Texans decided to switch QBs in the middle of the game, resulting in some success, which makes me think the Texans will go with Mallett in week two. The Panthers looked constipated in week one. That’s the best I can describe it. Newton only managed 175 yards passing and rushed 14 times, which is part of the reason he gets completely beaten by week nine. I like Houston to bounce back from a rough start.
Winner ATS: Houston
1:00 pm FOX Heinz Field
Despite Pittsburgh’s weak defense in week one, Roethlisberger managed 351 yards and 68.4% completion. All of this was done without Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant. They’ll be without both of them again, but they seem to be fine regardless. San Francisco was pegged as the bottom of the NFC much less the West. Part of their success in week one was Minnesota-based, but I’m unsure that the Steelers defense will be figured out enough to deal with the unpredictability of the 49ers offense.
Winner ATS: San Francisco
1:00 pm CBS Paul Brown Stadium
San Diego displayed on Sunday why they’re one of the best home teams in the league. Rivers’ 404 passing yards with better than 83% completion rate led a come back victory over the Lions. However, the Bengals may be the best team in the league with home field and the 1:00 time slot. With Tyler Eifert back in the line up and the threat of Sanu and Green, the Bengals will be tough to top.
Winner ATS: Cincinnati
1:00 pm FOX FedEx Field
The switch from RGIII to Kirk Cousins feels good for Redskins fans only because it’s someone different. They then remember he has a career 76.6 passer rating and more total interceptions than TDs and they slowly sink into the moroseness of knowing another season is likely to go nowhere. St. Louis looked good in week one. Nick Foles is a big body that will take hits without suffering damage. Four losses in the preseason only to beat the team that has made back-to-back trips to the Super Bowl is proof positive that the preseason is not a good barometer.
Winner ATS: St. Louis
1:00 pm FOX MetLife Stadium
The Giants should be 1-0 at the moment. Yes, that math is questionable because nearly every team can say that they should be 1-0, but there’s certainly more truth for some than others. Reports after the Sunday night game were that Eli told his team not to score while deep down in Cowboy territory. If the Giants can land a near victory against that offensive line in Dallas, I think they’ll do just fine at home against an Atlanta team with a new coach.
Winner ATS: New York
1:00 pm FOX Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Typically you’re not supposed to take double digit favorites, and this line does stink for picking the Saints. So I won’t. Week two is the lovely time of year when everyone overreacts to week one and labels entire seasons after one game. Jameis Winston did not look good against the Titans. But there’s no chance that performance will be his season average (not with Mike Evans). The Saints defense is still porous as ever, and Winston will be entering the game with the first game jitters aside.
Winner ATS: Tampa Bay
4:05 pm CBS O.co Coliseum
This game will be very much so up in the air until they actually kick off. Derek Carr’s bruised throwing thumb will be the difference in the game and the spread. The Ravens had an embarrassing display in Denver, racking up just 173 total yards of offense. But with just a one game sample, it’s impossible to tell if it was a product of the players not performing, Marc Trestman’s play calling, or the Denver defense turning into a brick wall. Because there’s too much to be sorted out, I’ll take the home team and the points.
Winner ATS: Oakland
4:05 pm CBS EverBank Field
Jacksonville are still bad. Allen Hurns is their offensive bright spot, but he’s only as good as the man getting him the ball. Blake Bortles still looks lost at times on the field and makes questionable decisions with the ball. As for Ryan Tannehill being said to have greatly improved, he is still married to the short passes. The Dolphins defense will likely show up as the true threat in week two.
Winner ATS: Miami
4:25 pm FOX Lincoln Financial Field
Vegas are clearly not overreacting to Philadelphia’s week one loss to the Falcons. The second half by the Eagles is the danger teams in the league fear facing. Undoubtedly, 52 pass attempts from Bradford won’t happen in week two. The Cowboys will be without Dez Bryant after his foot injury in week one. There are likely to be a lot of points scored in this one.
Winner ATS: Philadelphia
8:30 pm NBC Lambeau Field
Green Bay seemed largely uninterrupted in week one without Jordy Nelson. We forget that Randle Cobb and James Jones are very viable targets. Regardless, the Packers still have some holes to fill on defense, especially in the rushing game. With Marshawn Lynch coming to town, I like the Seahawks to bounce back.
Winner ATS: Seattle
Monday, Sept. 21
8:30 pm ESPN Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas aren’t falling for 30 points out of the Jets much in the same way they’re not buying the Colts being that stagnant on offense. The Bills just have a really good defense. I’ll chance the Colts returning to being, ya know, the Colts.
Winner ATS: Indianapolis
Spread courtesy of Vegasinsider.com