Last week was a train wreck across the league. I heard of survivor pools going from hundreds of people down to the teens. With multiple teams switching quarterbacks and some questionable at the position, this week could be the same thing all over again.
Last Week: 4-12
Thursday, Sept. 24
8:25 pm CBS MetLife Stadium
Kirk Cousins led the Redskins to a sound victory last week, never trailing. The Redskins have limited their offense to avoid mistakes from Cousins, but I’m unsure how sustainable 85% passing is for him. The Giants have controlled both of their games this season, but have made small decisions that have erased certain victories. The good news for them is that their play is not the problem.
Winner ATS: New York
Sunday, Sept. 27
1:00 pm CBS TCF Bank Stadium
This line jumped a point from -1.5, undoubtedly due to the righting of Adrian Peterson to the tune of 134 yards. His fumbling may be a concern, but he’ll continue to shed the rust as the season wears on. The Chargers ran into the buzz saw that is Cincinnati at home last week, but still managed 354 yards of offense. While Minnesota looks improved, I like the road team.
Winner ATS: San Diego
1:00 pm CBS FirstEnergy Stadium
West coast teams coming east for a 1:00 pm start usually spells disaster, but I don’t know if that will apply to a Raider team high off of an impressive victory over Baltimore. It’s difficult to put up 448 yards of offense in the NFL, but the Raiders did allow 493 out of Baltimore. The Browns will be switching back to McCown, which will put pressure on the journeyman after Manziel’s performance against the Titans. It’s a bad line for the Browns.
Winner ATS: Oakland
1:00 pm CBS M&T Bank Stadium
It’s that must win time for the Ravens. Their offense certainly looked improved last week after a dismal 173-yard week one. The Bengals are on course for their typical regular season run, but another week for the Ravens in figuring out how to play without Suggs makes me think they’ll pick up their first win.
Winner ATS: Baltimore
1:00 pm FOX Bank of America Stadium
Carolina has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde these past few seasons. Cam Newton has little help in terms of offensive weapons, but they fluctuate between 30-point games and a 9-point field goal fest. Despite throwing under 50% and for 195 yards in a passing league, the Panthers still scored 24 points last week. I don’t get it. The Saints look about as lost as any team in the NFL. The Superdome has been flipped on its head in becoming a house of horrors for their own team. I don’t think they’ll pick it up this week, especially with Brees nursing a bruised throwing shoulder.
Winner ATS: Carolina
1:00 pm FOX AT&T Stadium
History would say Brandon Weeden will not lead the Cowboys to a winning record over this eight-or-so-week stretch without Romo, but the offensive line may change things. However, it won’t be in this game. AT&T Stadium is often like a home game for the opponent. The Falcons also play in a dome. Matt Ryan starts the season 3-0 against the NFC East
Winner ATS: Atlanta
1:00 pm FOX NRG Stadium
This lined jumped 3 points from -3.5 at the open. I’m not sure why. Jameis Winston looked impressive last week, much closer to his preseason projections. We do have a tendency to overreact to the previous week, and the Bucs may revert to mediocrity this week, but I don’t think Houston has everything figured out, including the most important position in sports. Having Ryan Mallett throw 58 times probably isn’t going to work. I don’t know if the Bucs will win, but they should cover.
Winner ATS: Tampa Bay
1:00 pm CBS Nissan Stadium
The talk all week has been about what’s going on in Indianapolis (and Philly). Andrew Luck does turn the ball over a lot, but he also wins a lot against his division. Luck is 16-2 all time against the AFC South and hasn’t lost to anyone in that division since 2012. Add to it that he’s a perfect 6-0 against the titans and I just don’t see it happening, even with their recent struggles.
Winner ATS: Indianapolis
1:00 pm CBS Edward Jones Dome
Ben Roethlisberger is really good. We sort of forget that he’s been a very good quarterback for a long time, and shows little sign of slowing. The Rams impressed in week one, and did quite the opposite in week two. But their home turf is one of the better in the league. We can’t lose sight of how they posted 352 yards on the Seahawks in week one at home.
Winner ATS: St. Louis
1:00 pm CBS Gillette Stadium
The Patriots are already in midseason form from last season. They score a lot and put up a lot of points, but they give up a lot of yards, too—464 in week one and 349 in week two. You’d feel better about taking the points if it wasn’t the Jaguars getting them, but it’s too big of a number and it only takes a little slip to get under that number.
Winner ATS: Jacksonville
Philadelphia (0-2) at N.Y. Jets (2-0) -2.5
1:00 pm FOX MetLife Stadium
When you want to prove that your offense isn’t an inept mess, the Jets are a bad place to do it. The Jets lead the league in takeaways with 10. While the number likely won’t continuing jumping at that rate, it’s the actual forcing of the fumbles that matters. DeMarco Murray has 11 rushing yards through two games, but I have a hard time seeing that continue. One of these weeks they’re bound to figure it out.
Winner ATS: Philadelphia
4:05 pm FOX University of Phoenix Stadium
The Cardinals look polished. There’s nothing fake about their 69 points through two games. The 49ers came back to Earth last week, and I’m imagining that to be where they stay.
Winner ATS: Arizona
4:25 pm CBS CenturyLink Field
Jimmy Clausen takes the reigns of the Bears, Kam Chancellor returns to the Seattle defense, Seattle’s home opener in a must win. I don’t care what the spread is.
Winner ATS: Seattle
4:25 pm CBS Sun Life Stadium
It’s the classic set up for everyone loving the Bills this week: Miami comes off a putrid performance in Jacksonville, Buffalo put up big numbers against one of the best teams in the league. But it’s Miami. That place is a trap for most teams. The heat and humidity should win out.
Winner ATS: Miami
8:30 pm NBC Ford Field
Denver holds the most fraudulent undefeated record so far. Peyton Manning needs everything to go right for things to work, but luckily he’s in a dome. Matthew Stafford may not play, but I can’t see the Lions continuing to lose and Denver continuing to win.
Winner ATS: Detroit
Monday, Sept. 28
8:30 pm ESPN Lambeau Field
Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown an INT at home since 2012. Let that marinate. The Chiefs are good, but they’re matching the Giants in terms of dumb decisions that cost them games.
Winner ATS: Green Bay
Spreads courtesy of Vegasinsider.com