All but one of the home teams are favorites in the one o’clock hour. All of the home teams are dogs in the four o’clock hour. Welcome to week five of the NFL season where we start to piece together who is good, who is bad, and who makes us scratch our heads.
Last Week: 7-8
Thursday, Oct 8th
8:25 pm CBS NRG Stadium
Though it’s divisional, this is a bad game. The Colts will likely be going with Hasselbeck, but he spent Tuesday night in the hospital with a virus. The Texans can’t decide which quarterback they want out there, which makes this -4 spread a huge indictment of Indianapolis.
Winner ATS: Houston
Sunday, Oct 11th
1:00 pm CBS M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore barely escaped a potentially season-ending game in week four. And yet, their three losses have come by a total of 14 points and have a chance to go up 2-1 in their division games.
Winner ATS: Baltimore
1:00 pm CBS Lambeau Field
St. Louis finally awoke from their week one super bowl hangover. Nick Foles looked like a top tier QB after entering week four ranked last in total offense. Nine is a lot of points, but Rogers is on a mission, and that whole no interceptions at home thing should scare any opponent.
Winner ATS: Green Bay
1:00 pm CBS Nissan Stadium
Tyrod Taylor has feasted on weaker defenses (Miami, Indianapolis) with high completion percentages and no turnovers. While Tennessee has had time to prepare, the Bills will spend a good portion of this season beating bad teams.
Winner ATS: Buffalo
1:00 pm FOX Lincoln Financial Field
It’s remarkable that as bad as the Eagles have been they’re favored by this much. While New Orleans is 5th in the league in total offense and the Eagles are 28th, between DeMarco Murray’s complaint about lack of touches and Chip Kelly’s response that it’s hard to get them while not on the field, Sunday will be a huge show of trying shut everyone up.
Winner ATS: Philadelphia
1:00 pm FOX Georgia Dome
The Falcons found what every opponent doesn’t want to see, a compliment to Julio Jones. Devonta Freeman (7 TDs) will keep every team honest to the running game, which will allow Matt Ryan to toy with just about anyone.
Winner ATS: Atlanta
1:00 pm FOX Paul Brown Stadium
Seattle doesn’t have a good offense. Without Marshawn Lynch, they have pretty much nothing. Their offensive line can’t block, leaving Russell Wilson to scramble for a big gain. I know it frequently works, but it’s not something you can do consistently without a costly turnover. Wilson has the tendency to throw back across his body while rolling to the right, and it’s going to get him in trouble at some point.
Winner ATS: Cincinnati
1:00 pm FOX Arrowhead Stadium
While the Chiefs have had a hard time getting the ball into the end zone (7 FGs in week four), Alex Smith still had 386 yards passing with 68.9% completions in that game. They’ve had only one home game up to this point and will likely take advantage of a much needed home game.
Winner ATS: Kansas City
1:00 pm CBS Raymond James Stadium
Jameis has had one okay game this season, while looking very hideous in the rest (7 INTs). However, he’s looked much more comfortable against weaker defenses even if his stats don’t reflect that.
Winner ATS: Tampa Bay
4:05 pm FOX Ford Field
Detroit has one of the weaker offenses in the league (30th in yards), but they’ve also faced a brutal schedule—at San Diego, at Minnesota, at Seattle, and home against the Broncos. Arizona only adds to the difficulty, but there might be a simple will factor behind this game.
Winner ATS: Detroit
4:25 pm CBS AT&T Stadium
The Patriots under Belichick are 11-4 coming off of bye. I doubt any of those games were against a team down their starting QB and leading receiver.
Winner ATS: New England
4:25 pm CBS O.co Coliseum
While many are high on the Raiders, it’s simply because they didn’t start the season 0-6. A closer look will tell you that the Raiders are 2-0 against teams with a collective 2-6 record and 0-2 against teams with a combined 5-3 record. They’ll likely play a good game against the Broncos, but Denver has too much on defense.
Winner ATS: Denver
8:30 pm NBC Metlife Stadium
San Francisco looks about as inept on offense as their 10 points in the past two games would indicate. No amount of scheming will change the loss of personnel they’ve gone through before the season.
Winner ATS: New York
Monday, Oct 12th
8:30 pm ESPN Qualcomm Stadium
The Steelers are attempting to hold Mike Vick from costly turnovers and doing too much offensively. To their and Vick’s credit, 78% completions and no interceptions was enough to win the game had kicking not been a factor. However, Vick has fumbled twice and will likely start playing in the erratic style that looks great when it works but makes everyone cringe when it doesn’t
Winner ATS: San Diego
Bye week: Carolina, Miami, Minnesota, N.Y. Jets
Spreads courtesy of Vegasinsider.com